Financial Post ~ November 6th, 2025
The path for rates now largely rests on how much harder (or lighter) Trump hits Canada with tariffs
With United States President Donald Trump’s tariff policy still fogging up Canada’s economic outlook, mortgage rates remain in a two-year downtrend.
And yet, despite the Bank of Canada’s “preferred” inflation gauge sitting at a still-naughty 3.15 per cent, “upward (inflation) momentum has dissipated,” insisted Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem on Thursday. If he’s right — and that’s extremely TBD — it implies less upside rate risk in 2026.
That said, core inflation’s stubborn refusal to hit the two-per-cent target is a glaring reason why Macklem is hinting that rate cuts may be done for a while.
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